🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be no longer in control by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been seized. A single trader, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions just before the social media post was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other traders also earned significant sums from predicting the capture. Political Attention Emerges Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule presented on recently aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market space. An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."